TCORS: Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR)

Research Project 4: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Use and Regulations on Vulnerable Populations​

Tobacco use varies greatly by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) in the US, with unacceptably high cigarette smoking rates in American Indian Alaska Native and low education populations, as well as subpopulations at the intersection of race/ethnicity and SES (e.g. non- Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals with a high school degree or less). Tobacco use trajectories are further complicated by characterizing flavors in cigarettes (menthol), cigars, and e-cigarettes, the use of which is concentrated in specific subpopulations.

Policymakers are considering flavor restriction policies and other tobacco regulations but lack detailed information about how such policies could affect disparities. To address this need, we will develop tobacco simulation models to project the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use and health outcomes among racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups.

Aims

  • Aim 1: Characterize cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use and tobacco product use transitions across population group and education levels, and at their interactions
  • Aim 2: Develop simulation models of cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use across population groups and education, levels and their interactions
  • Aim 3: Estimate the effects of flavor restrictions on cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use initiation, cessation, intensity, and switching rates across population groups and education levels and their interactions
  • Aim 4: Model the impact of flavor restrictions on patterns of tobacco product use and downstream mortality outcomes across population groups

Leads

  • Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Rutgers University
    Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Rutgers University: Associate Professor, Department of Health Behavior, Society and Policy, Rutgers University, School of Public Health and Rutgers Institute for Nicotine and Tobacco Studies
    Positions: Co-Lead, Research Project 4; Co-Investigator, Research Project 1
    Dr. Jamie Tam is Co-Lead of Project 4 and PI of the Rutgers CAsToR site. She is a co-Investigator for the NCI-funded Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) lung group, as well as a member of the Rutgers Institute for Nicotine & Tobacco Studies and the Rutgers Cancer Institute. Her research uses modeling methods to evaluate long-term population health outcomes and related disparities associated with changes in the tobacco policy, treatment, and regulatory environment, particularly for people with mental and behavioral health conditions.
  • Rafael Meza, PhD
    Rafael Meza, PhD
    Rutgers University
    Rafael Meza, PhD
    Rutgers University: Adjunct Professor
    Positions: CAsToR Principal Investigator; Co-Lead, Research Project 1; Co-Lead, Research Project 4; Co-Lead, Administrative (ADMIN) Core
    Dr. Meza is Principal Investigator of the Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulation (CAsToR) and the Coordinating Principal Investigator of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Rutgers Cancer Institute, with an appointment in the Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School Department of Medicine, Section of Cancer Epidemiology and Health Outcomes. He is also a Distinguished Scientist at the British Columbia Cancer Research Institute and Distinguished Scholar in Lung Cancer Screening and Prevention at the University of British Columbia. Previously, Dr. Meza was Professor of Epidemiology and Global Health at the University of Michigan and co-Leader of the Cancer Control and Population Sciences of the Rogel Cancer Center. Dr. Meza’s research interests lie at the interface of epidemiology, biostatistics and biomathematics. He is an expert in lung cancer epidemiology and prevention, and tobacco epidemiology and control. The goal of his research program is to characterize the impact of disease prevention and control interventions, informing stakeholders and policymakers as to the most effective and efficient ways to improve population health. In particular, he is interested in cancer risk assessment and the analysis of cancer epidemiology data using mechanistic models of carcinogenesis. He is also interested in the mathematical modeling of chronic and infectious disease dynamics and its applications in disease prevention public health policy design.
  • Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    University of Michigan
    Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    University of Michigan: Associate Professor, Health Behavior and Health Education, Associate Professor of Global Health
    Positions: Co-Lead, Career Enhancement Core (CEC); Co-Lead, Research Project 4; Co-Investigator, Data Analysis and Modeling (DAM) Core
    Dr. Ritesh Mistry is Core Lead for the Career Enhancement Core (CEC) and Co-Lead of Project 4 and a member of the CAsToR Steering Committee. Dr. Mistry is an Associate Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education, Associate Professor of Global Health at the University of Michigan. His research focuses on evaluating health disparities in smoking trends, as well as adolescent tobacco use and secondhand smoke exposures in global settings.