TCORS: Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR)

Research Project 4: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Use and Regulations on Vulnerable Populations​

Tobacco use varies greatly by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) in the US, with unacceptably high cigarette smoking rates in American Indian Alaska Native and low education populations, as well as subpopulations at the intersection of race/ethnicity and SES (e.g. non- Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals with a high school degree or less). Tobacco use trajectories are further complicated by characterizing flavors in cigarettes (menthol), cigars, and e-cigarettes, the use of which is concentrated in specific subpopulations.

Policymakers are considering flavor restriction policies and other tobacco regulations but lack detailed information about how such policies could affect disparities. To address this need, we will develop tobacco simulation models to project the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use and health outcomes among racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups.

Aims

  • Aim 1: This project will characterize cigarette, cigar, and ENDS patterns of use by race/ethnicity, education, and for vulnerable subgroups at their intersection (Aim 1).
  • Aim 2: We will develop simulation models of cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use for (a) key race/ethnicity groups (NHB, NHW, Hispanics and AIAN), (b) four different education groups (less than high school, high school degree or GED, some college, and college degree or more) and (c) for groups at the intersection of race/ethnicity and education (NHB, NHW, Hispanic individuals of low vs. high educational attainment).
  • Aim 3: We will estimate the effects of flavor restrictions on cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use by race/ethnicity and education using information from quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews, and expert consultations.
  • Aim 4: Finally, we plan to project the impact of flavor restrictions on US patterns of tobacco product use and downstream mortality outcomes by race/ethnicity and education, and for key vulnerable groups at their intersection.

Leads

  • Rafael Meza, PhD
    Rafael Meza, PhD
    British Columbia Cancer Research Institute
    Rafael Meza, PhD
    British Columbia Cancer Research Institute: Distinguished Scientist
    Positions: Administrative (ADMIN) Core; CAsToR Principal Investigator; Research Project 1; Research Project 4
    Dr. Meza is Principal Investigator of the Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulation (CAsToR) and the Coordinating Principal Investigator of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group. Prior to joining BC Cancer, Dr. Meza was Professor of Epidemiology and Global Health at the University of Michigan and co-Leader of the Cancer Control and Population Sciences of the Rogel Cancer Center. Dr. Meza is a Distinguished Scientist at the British Columbia Cancer Research Institute and Distinguished Scholar in Lung Cancer Screening and Prevention at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Meza's research interests lie at the interface of epidemiology, biostatistics and biomathematics. He is an expert in lung cancer epidemiology and prevention and tobacco epidemiology and control. The goal of his research program is to characterize the impact of disease prevention and control interventions, informing stakeholders and policymakers as to the most effective and efficient ways to improve population health. In particular, he is interested in cancer risk assessment and the analysis of cancer epidemiology data using mechanistic models of carcinogenesis. He is also interested in the mathematical modeling of chronic and infectious disease dynamics and its applications in disease prevention public health policy design.
  • Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Yale University
    Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH
    Yale University: Assistant Professor of Health Policy, Addiction Medicine
    Position: Research Project 4
    Role: Co-Investigator
    Dr. Jamie Tam is Co-Investigator of Project 4 and co-PI of the Yale CAsToR site. She is a co-Investigator for the NCI-funded Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) lung group, as well as a member of the Yale Cancer Center and the Yale Program in Addiction Medicine. Her research uses modeling methods to evaluate long-term population health outcomes and related disparities associated with changes in the tobacco policy, treatment, and regulatory environment, particularly for people with mental and behavioral health conditions.
  • Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    University of Michigan
    Ritesh Mistry, PhD
    University of Michigan: Associate Professor, Health Behavior and Health Education, Associate Professor of Global Health
    Positions: Career Enhancement Core (CEC); Research Project 4
    Dr. Ritesh Mistry is Core Lead for the Career Enhancement Core (CEC) and co-Investigator of Project 4 and a member of the CAsToR Steering Committee. Dr. Mistry is an Associate Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education, Associate Professor of Global Health at the University of Michigan. His research focuses on evaluating health disparities in smoking trends, as well as adolescent tobacco use and secondhand smoke exposures in global settings.