Panel Discussion: Developing Significance and Innovation Sections for Tobacco Regulatory Science Proposals Speakers: Dr. Stephanie Land • Dr. Adam Leventhal • Dr. Jamie Tam Description: Panelists will each provide a brief presentation on developing Significance and Innovation sections in the context of TRS proposals. There will be sufficient time for Q & A, and registrants will be offered the opportunity to submit questions prior to the event. This event is open to CAsToR affiliates and panelists’ invitees.Registration is required.Questions? Please contact Molly Coeling at mcoeling@umich.edu.
CAsToR Alumni: Delvon Mattingly, PhD Description: CAsToR Alumni Delvon Mattingly, PhD, recently completed his doctoral degree in Epidemiology and began working as a Research Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky College of Medicine. His work focuses on investigating disparities in tobacco product-specific use and associated health consequences, and he has a specific interest in factors driving racial and ethnic disparities in use, as well as ways to promote health equity. He shares his educational ...
CAsToR Webinar: Microsimulation Modeling for the Colliding Epidemics of Tobacco and HIV Description: Dr. Krishna Reddy will discuss an established microsimulation model of HIV and a new microsimulation model of tobacco and nicotine product use. He will review the application of these models to study clinical and economic outcomes associated with tobacco use among people with and without HIV in the US and South Africa. Dr. Reddy will also discuss dissemination of model findings to clinical and policy making audiences.
CAsToR Webinar: Building a COPD Natural History Simulation Model for Tobacco Regulation Evaluation: From Statistics to Simulation Description: CAsToR junior investigator Dr. Sanchez Romero will talk through the development of a population simulation model for tobacco control, using an example of her work on developing a COPD Natural History Model. She will also discuss the use of different methods to estimate model input parameters, including important barriers to consider when using various health data sources for model development. There will be sufficient time for Q&A. Registration is required. Questions? ...
Modeling the impact of flavored cigars ban: challenges and perspectives Speaker: Jihyoun Jeon Description: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed banning menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. Final rulings are expected by Fall 2023. These bans aim to prevent youth initiation of smoking and to reduce tobacco-related disease and death, especially in a population that disproportionately uses flavored tobacco products. In this talk, Dr. Jeon will introduce simulation models of cigarette and cigar flavored and unflavored use, currently under development ...
Population health estimates of impact of flavored cigar restrictions Speaker: Brian Rostron Description: This presentation reviews preliminary estimates of potential impacts of a prohibition on characterizing flavors other than tobacco in cigars on US population health that have been published by FDA. Cessation estimates were based on observed effects of flavor restrictions in localities as well as literature on the effects of tax increases on cigarette consumption. It was estimated that approximately 800 US cigar smoking-attributable deaths would be averted per ...
Modeling a menthol ban using the menthol smoking and vaping model Speaker: David Levy Description: A discussion of the Menthol Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), which was developed to examine the public health impact of a menthol cigarette ban. This talk will cover the evidence used to develop the model as well as how the model incorporates the potential role of ENDS use as a substitute for menthol cigarettes.
Estimating the public health consequences of menthol cigarettes on smoking prevalence and premature mortality from 1980 through 2018 Speaker: Thuy Le Description: This talk will discuss our work on the public health consequences of menthol cigarettes on smoking prevalence and premature mortality from 1980 through 2018.
Reactions to hypothetical flavor bans among current users of flavored tobacco or nicotine products Speaker: Yong Yang Description: This study examined how current smokers using menthol cigarettes or flavored cigars, and current users of flavored e-cigarettes may respond to various hypothetical flavor-ban scenarios. Our results indicate that a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars would decrease smoking. However, it is unclear if adding a ban of menthol e-cigarettes would lead to additional benefits because without menthol e-cigarettes as an alternative, some smokers and e-cigarette ...
Modeling flavored tobacco use and the impact of flavor restrictions: challenges and opportunities Speaker: Rafael Meza Description: In this talk, Dr. Rafael Meza will discuss approaches to modeling the impact of tobacco flavor restrictions and discuss the data needs. Using the modeling of the menthol cigarette ban as an example, Dr. Meza will summarize the steps needed to project the impact of flavor restrictions and discuss the challenges of extending previous menthol cigarette models to other tobacco products.
Impact of flavors on initiation, cessation, switching, and health effects Speaker: Liane Schneller Description: Dr. Schneller will discuss various studies that assess the association of characterizing flavors with changes in tobacco use behaviors and their health effects.
Overview of flavor use and policy relevance Speaker: Andrea Villanti Description: Dr. Villanti will provide an overview of the role of flavors in tobacco use behaviors, as well as epidemiological and sales data on the use of flavored tobacco products in the U.S.
Modeling approach to quantify the potential public health effects of reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes in the United States Speaker: Esther Salazar Description: Population models have been used in tobacco regulatory science to model the potential impact of a regulatory policy on the population as a whole, including users and nonusers of tobacco products, as well as to evaluate the potential population health impact associated with the introduction of new tobacco products through Premarket Tobacco Product Application and Substantial Equivalence pathways. This presentation will focus on describing a modeling strategy ...
Tobacco endgame in New Zealand: could it achieve less than 5% prevalence by 2025, and what are the health and productivity gains? Speaker: Tony Blakely Description: Aotearoa-New Zealand has embarked on a bold tobacco endgame, namely: all retail tobacco to be very low nicotine content; 90% to 95% reduction in tobacco retail outlets; and a tobacco free generation whereby people born in 2008 or later can never legally purchase tobacco. We were commissioned by the New Zealand Government to simulate the health, health inequality, and cost impacts of these policies to inform Government and Cabinet deliberations leading up to ...
Modeling the potential impact of instantaneous versus gradual VLNC regulation on smoking prevalence and associated mortality Speaker: David Mendez Description: Dr. Mendez will present a modeling study that examines multiple scenarios to compare the population effects on premature mortality of reducing nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels instantaneously versus gradually.
The public health gains had cigarette companies chosen to sell very low nicotine cigarettes Speaker: David Levy Description: A modeling study that estimates the public health gains had cigarette companies chosen to sell very low nicotine cigarettes beginning with when they had the technical capability.
Reducing nicotine in cigarettes: the science Speaker: Dorothy Hatsukami Description: Since the passage of the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, there has been a burgeoning of scientific studies examining the effects of switching people who smoke (PWS) to reduced nicotine content cigarettes. Much of the groundwork for this research was established through meetings that were convened to examine the existing scientific literature on this topic, to determine the feasibility of reducing nicotine in cigarettes as a public health ...
Nicotine addiction: from biology to regulatory policy Speaker: Neal Benowitz Description: A brief review of nicotine pharmacology and addiction, and translation of nicotine pharmacology to regulatory policy for the promotion of public health.
Overview of FDA regulatory framework for very low nicotine cigarettes Speaker: Mitch Zeller Description: An overview of the tobacco industry’s understanding of the true role of nicotine and an explanation of the statutory and regulatory framework under which FDA intends to mandate reductions in the nicotine content of combustible cigarettes and other combustible products.
The use of modeling in tobacco regulatory science: insights from CTP Speaker: Brian King Description: FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products Director Brian King, PhD, MPH will discuss the importance of modeling in tobacco regulatory science and how the Center has been using modeling to advance new tobacco regulatory actions. Specifically, Dr. King will highlight how simulation modeling has helped the Center move forward on the menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars product standards, in addition to the planned proposed nicotine product standard, by helping to ...
Contributions of computational modeling to tobacco regulation decision making – present and future Speaker: Kenneth E. Warner Description: This presentation will provide a brief overview of how tobacco modeling research has contributed important evidence to tobacco regulation decision making, most notably including the FDA’s consideration of prohibiting menthol in cigarettes and other combusted tobacco products. It will then turn to the potential of contemporary and future research to inform future regulatory decision making. Noteworthy here are the foci of this symposium: nicotine reduction ...
CAsToR Junior Investigator: Chris Cadham, MPH Description: CAsToR Junior Investigator Chris Cadham, MPH and doctoral candidate, shares how his work in computational modeling led him to his current work in tobacco control, which focuses on evaluating cessation interventions and understanding the effects of regulations on flavored tobacco products. He also reflects upon what fascinates him about computational modeling and gives two pieces of advice for people who are interested in tobacco regulatory science and/or modeling. ...
Responding to Journal Peer Reviewers Speaker: Dr. Ella August Description: How to navigate the journal peer review system In this webinar, Dr. August will focus on basic principles and strategies for responding to journal peer reviewers, including how to: • Format responses to reviewers for easy comprehension • Craft responses and associated manuscript changes to maximize your chances for final acceptance • Address suggestions with which you do not agree • Address ...
Manuscript Writing Basics Webinar Speaker: Dr. Ella August Description: Join us to strengthen your scientific writing skills In this webinar, Dr. August will cover key approaches and tips for writing a publishable research paper, including the following topics: • Selecting a suitable target journal • Writing a compelling title • Developing clear and testable research objectives • Creating a solid introduction • Formulating a strong ...
Lightning Talks 2023 Session Three: Tobacco Related Disparities Description: “Trajectories of tobacco use, stress and health among U.S. transgender youth and adults” with Dr. Luisa Kcomt (Wayne State University) • “Longitudinal trends in the prevalence of menthol cigarette use and disparities in use at sub-national levels by sex, age, and race/ethnicity: Findings from the International Tobacco Control US Surveys from 2002 to 2020” with Dr. Pete Driezen (University of Waterloo)
Lightning Talks 2023 Session Two: Tobacco Use Transitions Description: “Determinants of tobacco use transitions among smokers and dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes” with Dr. Andrew Brouwer (University of Michigan) • “Identifying causal pathways in longitudinal tobacco product transition studies” with Dr. Shu “Violet” Xu (New York University) • “Predicting smoking behaviors using machine learning” with Dr. Mona Issabakhsh (Georgetown University) and Dr. Thuy Le (University of Michigan) • “Substitutability ...
Lightning Talks 2023 Session One: Tobacco Use Among Youth Description: “The effects of Tobacco 21 adoption on cigar sales in the US” with Dr. Alex Liber (Georgetown University) • “Automating the detection of American adolescents at risk of e-cigarette dependence using machine learning” with Dr. Rui “Ray” Fu (University of Toronto) • “The impact of individual decision making and social network structure on anti-tobacco program effectiveness and disparities in adolescent tobacco use behavior” with ...
CAsToR Junior Investigator: Mona Issabakhsh, PhD, MS Description: CAsToR Junior Investigator Mona Issabakhsh, PhD, MS shares how she has used her background in mathematical modeling to develop machine learning and computer simulation models that explore key questions in tobacco regulatory science, including predictors of smoking cessation success, as well as forecasting the impact of a menthol ban on the African American population.
Tobacco Regulatory Science Distinguished Speaker Series: Nicotine and Tobacco Regulatory Policy - A Look Back and a Look Forward Speaker: Mitch Zeller, JD Description: Mr. Zeller will take an in-depth look at the historically unregulated marketplace for tobacco products and the public health consequences of the lack of regulation. He will then explore the critical role that FDA plays conducting premarket product reviews to determine whether new tobacco products are “appropriate for the protection of public health” and should be authorized for sale. He will close with a look forward, sharing observations and posing ...
CAsToR Junior Investigator: James Buszkiewicz, PhD, MPH Description: CAsToR Junior Investigator James Buszkiewicz, PhD, MPH discusses how his passion for social determinants of health and health equity led him to examine how the FDA’s regulatory power over cigar flavorings could be used as a tool to reduce sociodemographic inequities in tobacco-related health outcomes.
David Mendez, PhD: “Intro to trend analyses and time-series approaches for modeling” (conceptual) Description: This module will: 1) Expose you to different approaches to time series modeling; 2) Help you understand the underlying assumptions behind different time series modeling
Jihyoun Jeon, PhD, MS: “Joinpoint regression” (application) Description: Please note that part 1 of this model (conceptual) is not available for public viewing. The hands-on part of the module will teach you how to: 1) Perform a trend analysis using the Joinpoint Trend Analysis software developed by the NCI; 2) Identify trend change points which break the trend into distinct periods; 3) Compare trends between different subpopulations
Ted Holford, PhD: “Age-period-cohort modeling” (conceptual) Description: This module will teach you how to: 1) Express temporal trends from an age, period, and cohort perspective. 2) Parameterize time in a statistical model. 3) Partition temporal trends into linear and curvature effects. 4) Model trends of ever smoking prevalence. 5) Model trends in smoking initiation and cessation probabilities. 6) Combine the contributions of initiation and cessation to quantify smoking exposure. 7) Quantify the effect of smoking on population ...
Steve Cook, PhD: “Standard longitudinal data analysis” (conceptual & application) Description: The hands-on part of the module will teach you how to: 1) create censor and duration variables; 2) restructure data to create an unbalanced person-period data set; 3) estimate discrete time models; 4) incorporate replicate weights.
David Mendez, PhD: “Introduction to compartmental modeling” (conceptual) Description: This module will teach you how to: 1) Understand the basic concepts behind compartmental models and their advantages and disadvantages over individual-based (micro) models. 2) Understand a basic taxonomy and key properties of macro-dynamic models.
Andrew Brouwer, PhD, MS, MA: “Markov modeling: Multistate transition modeling” (conceptual) Description: This module will teach you how to: 1) Understand why transitions are important to many research questions for tobacco control; 2) Specify, implement, and interpret a multistate transition applied to longitudinal data of tobacco product use; 3) Graphically summarize transition probabilities and hazard ratios; 4) Apply a multistate transition model to the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study
Andrew Brouwer, PhD, MS, MA: “Markov modeling: Multistate transition modeling” (application) Description: This module will teach you how to: 1) Understand why transitions are important to many research questions for tobacco control; 2) Specify, implement, and interpret a multistate transition applied to longitudinal data of tobacco product use; 3) Graphically summarize transition probabilities and hazard ratios; 4) Apply a multistate transition model to the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study
Ritesh Mistry, PhD: “Markov modeling: Latent transition analysis” (conceptual) Description: Learning objectives: 1) Understand the conceptual underpinnings of latent transition analysis and its value to tobacco control research. 2) Describe the key analysis steps involved in conducting latent transition analysis. 3) Interpret the parameters and results generated from latent transition analysis.
David Mendez, PhD: “Bayesian estimation and the Kalman Filter” (conceptual) Description: This module will teach you how to: 1) Understand the basic principles of Bayesian estimation. 2) Understand how Bayesian estimation relates to structural time series modeling. 3) Understand the mechanics of the Kalman filter and its applications to structural time series modeling.
Thuy Le, PhD: “Bayesian estimation and the Kalman Filter” (application) Description: The hands-on part of the module will teach you how to: 1) Apply the Kalman filter to estimate the trajectory of the smoking cessation rate from smoking prevalence observations over time. 2) Learn how to implement and interpret the results of a Kalman filter estimation in R.
How systems thinking and simulation modeling can reshape public health Speakers: CAsToR member Dr. Andrew Brouwer • Dr. Ana Diez Roux • Dr. Melissa Tracy • Dr. Philippe Giabbanelli Description: The keynote speaker will identify the components/hallmarks of systems thinking and how it broadens perspectives and expands opportunities, facilitated by the application of modeling and simulation methods. This will be followed by 2-4 case studies from particular problem domains in public health in which the application of systems thinking and simulation modeling served to advance scientific discovery and impact beyond conventional approaches. CAsToR member ...
CAsToR Junior Investigator: Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH Description: CAsToR Junior Investigator Jamie Tam, PhD, MPH describes her research interests and academic journey in tobacco regulatory science and simulation modeling.
CAsToR Webinar: Agent-Based Modeling: Applications in Tobacco Regulatory Science Speaker: Dr. Ross Hammond Description: In this webinar, Dr. Ross Hammond will present some of his most recent work in agent-based modeling with a focus on Tobacco Town, a computational model for exploring environmental effects of retail tobacco control policies. There will be sufficient time for Q&A. Registration is required. All registrants must be approved by CAsToR to join this webinar. Questions? Please contact Molly Coeling at mcoeling@umich.
Panel Discussion: Developing Specific Aims for Tobacco Regulatory Science (TRS) Proposals Speakers: Dr. Stephanie Land • Dr. Adam Leventhal • Dr. Luz Sanchez Romero Description: Panelists each provide a brief presentation focused on developing Specific Aims in the context of TRS proposals.
CAsToR Junior Investigator: Jana Hirschtick, PhD, MPH Description: CAsToR Junior Investigator Jana Hirschtick, PhD, MPH discusses her work as a social epidemiologist and using tobacco regulatory science to address health inequities. You can learn more about some of Jana's work with CAsToR in this webinar she co-presented in January 2021: “Longitudinal associations between exclusive and dual use of ENDS and cigarettes and cardiovascular disease among adults: Key findings and methodological considerations.”
Longitudinal associations between exclusive and dual use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and cigarettes and cardiovascular disease among adults: Key findings and methodological considerations Speakers: Dr. Jana Hirschtick (Assistant Research Scientist, University of Michigan School of Public Health) • Dr. Steve Cook (Senior Research Area Specialist, University of Michigan School of Public Health) Description: In this webinar, CAsToR junior investigators Dr. Hirschtick and Dr. Cook will review one of the first longitudinal analyses of associations between exclusive and dual use of ENDS and cigarette use and diagnosed cardiovascular disease using the Population Assessment of Tobacco & Health (PATH) Study. In addition to presenting key findings, they will discuss important methodological considerations for these types of analyses, including confounding control, reducing ...
Tobacco Regulation in a Changing Policy Landscape Speakers: Holly Jarman, PhD (John G. Searle Assistant Professor of Health Management & Policy at University of Michigan) • Micah Berman, JD (Associate Professor of Health Services Management and Policy; Joint Appointment, College of Law at Ohio State University) Moderator: Cliff Douglas (Director, University of Michigan Tobacco Research Network and Adjunct Professor, Professor, University of Michigan School of Public Health) Description: In collaboration with the Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR), the University of Michigan Tobacco Research Network’s Smoke-Free Environments Law Project is hosting a webinar on the topic of Tobacco Regulation in a Changing Policy Landscape on November 11, 2021, from 12:00 noon to 1:15 pm EST. (This is a rescheduled date, following an earlier postponement. Note that if you registered for the original date, your registration has been re-approved ...
CAsToR Postdoctoral Research Fellow: Alex Liber, PhD Description: CAsToR Early Stage Investigator Alex Liber, PhD discusses his 13 years of experience in tobacco policy & control research. His work has ranged from a current evaluation of Tobacco 21 policies using sales data to a dissertation that looked at the comparative politics behind e-cigarette regulation in a variety of international contexts. Alex brings an understanding of public policy to computational modeling to help us understand how our models can best inform ...
Estimating transition rates between types of tobacco product use: Multistate transition models for longitudinal data Speaker: Dr. Andrew Brouwer Description: CAsToR junior investigator Dr. Brouwer provides an overview of multistate transition modeling, a technique for analyzing longitudinal data that is increasingly being used in the tobacco control field to estimate multiple transition rates (e.g., smoking initiation, cessation, and switching between products such as combustible cigarettes and e cigarettes).
Behavioral Health and Tobacco Use: Translating Research into Action Speakers: Steven Schroeder (Distinguished Professor of Health and Health Care, Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco) • Jamie Tam (Professor, Yale School of Public Health; CAsToR Pilot PI and Trainee) • Pat McKone (Senior Director of Advocacy and Public Policy at the American Lung Association) Description: The second webinar in a virtual Summer Tobacco Seminar Series hosted by University of Michigan Tobacco Research Network's Smoke-Free Environments Law Project (SFELP) in collaboration with the Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR). The panel will discuss tobacco use among individuals with behavioral health conditions.
CAsToR Postdoctoral Research Fellow: Steve Cook, PhD Description: CAsToR Postdoctoral Research Fellow Steve Cook, PhD discusses analysis of prospective longitudinal data to better understand the role of e-cigarettes in smoking cigarettes and to examine whether there is evidence of an association between e-cigarette use and cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes.
Menthol Products: New Research to Support Local Action Speakers: Cliff Douglas (CAsToR co-investigator) • Rafael Meza (CAsToR co-PI) • David Mendez (CAsToR co-investigator) • David Levy (CAsToR co-PI) • Kara Kiessling (UMTRN) • Minou Jones (Making it Count Community Development Corporation) Description: The first webinar in a virtual Summer Tobacco Seminar Series hosted by University of Michigan Tobacco Research Network's Smoke-Free Environments Law Project (SFELP) featured several CAsToR investigators who discussed the projected national public health impact of a menthol cigarette ban through sophisticated modeling research. Additionally, the CEO of the Making it Count Community Development Corporation discussed how the development of a local menthol survey ...
Panel Discussion Speakers: David B. Abrams, PhD • Benjamin Apelberg, PhD, MHS • Clifford Douglas, JD • Dorothy Hatsukami, PhD
Breakout Discussions Speakers: David Levy, PhD • David Mendez, PhD • Rafael Meza, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD • Cliff Douglas, JD
Breakout Reports Speakers: David Levy, PhD • David Mendez, PhD • Rafael Meza, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD • Cliff Douglas, JD
Modeling a Menthol Cigarette Ban and Flavor Restrictions on ENDS Speaker: David Levy, PhD Description: We first present the results of a simulation model that examines the impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars. This model relies on the results of an expert elicitation. The results are particularly sensitive to assumptions regarding the likelihood of smokers switching to ENDS. Extensions of that analysis are currently being conducted to consider the implications of applying flavors restrictions to ENDS. We discuss issues related to that model, and ...
Evaluating Potential Future Harm of Menthol Cigarettes Speaker: David Mendez, PhD Description: This talk will discuss how we used simulation analysis to evaluate the potential harm that menthol cigarettes could cause if they remain in the market.
The CISNET Smoking History Generator and CAsToR microsimulation models. Past Applications, Current Developments, and Future Directions Speaker: Rafael Meza, PhD Description: The Smoking History Generator (SHG) is a microsimulator developed by the CISNET Lung Group that generates detailed individual smoking histories for the US population. The SHG uses as inputs smoking initiation, cessation, intensity probabilities and smoking-adjusted mortality rates by age, cohort and sex. A macro-level version of the SHG has also been developed to reduce computational time when appropriate. The SHG has been used to evaluate the impact of tobacco ...
Trends in Nicotine Product Use among U.S. Adolescents, 1999-2020 Speaker: Ruoyan Sun, PhD Description: With rising e-cigarette use among U.S. adolescents and declining use of other tobacco products, it is unclear how total use of nicotine products, and its long-term health risks, have changed. CDC’s standard measure – any tobacco product use in the past 30 days – considers neither frequency of use nor product risk implications. In this study, we investigate how nicotine product use, including frequency of use, and its associated risks have changed among ...
An Estimation of the Harm of Menthol Cigarettes in the United States from 1980-2018 Speaker: Thuy Le, PhD Description: In this talk, I’ll present how we used a mathematical model with publicly available data to quantify the damage attributed to menthol cigarettes in the United States from 1980 through 2018. The numbers of extra new smokers, smoking-related premature deaths and life years lost (due to menthol cigarette smoking) are considered as the measures of the harmful effects of menthol.
Social Network Structure and Cigarette Smoking Among Adolescents and Young Adults Speaker: Iris Shao, MPH
Panel Discussion Speakers: Jody Sindelar, PhD • Aylin Sertkaya, PhD • Warren Bickel, PhD • Raymond Niaura, PhD
Generating Models Before Generating Parameters: A Bayesian Network Approach Speaker: Raymond Niaura, PhD Description: Computational and statistical models are useful tools for purposes of explanation and prediction. Construction of models is usually based on expert judgement and/or consensus, or is set by default by the analytic approach that is chosen. All models encounter difficulties as the number of variables increases. Here I present a Bayesian network, data-driven approach to model structure learning which relies on several machine learning algorithms to construct and ...
An Experimental Model of the Tobacco Marketplace Speaker: Warren Bickel, PhD Description: The tobacco marketplace is experiencing rapid changes in the type and number of tobacco products and new policies. Adding to that complexity is the illegal tobacco marketplace, which will continue to develop in response to some policies. Here we report on the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) paradigm that we have developed and tested in various studies. The ETM is a methodology developed to forecast the consequences of regulatory policies on consumer ...
Expert Elicitation – Insights and Lessons Learned Speaker: Aylin Sertkaya, PhD Description: Decision makers and analysts must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate in one way or another. Expert judgment then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data as well as in the completion of information gaps. But how experts are selected, and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely. This talk will cover ...
Generating Model Parameters Analyzing Real-World Data Versus Conducting Discrete Choice Experiments: Impact of Vaping and Smoking Policies Speaker: Jody Sindelar, PhD Description: This presentation will compare two methods of generating tobacco model parameters: 1) using quasi experimental methods with real world data versus 2) conducting discrete choice experiments (DCEs). Examples will be taken from a series of my coauthored studies estimating policy impacts using DCEs alongside a survey using a national sample online. Examples of quasi experimental studies will be drawn from a coauthored study and from a large, ongoing UMich/Yale ...
Panel Discussion Speakers: David Mendez, PhD • Douglas Luke, PhD • Esther Salazar, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD Description: Moderated by Rafael Meza, PhD
Population Modeling in Tobacco Regulation to Quantify the Risks and Benefits to the Population as a Whole Speaker: Esther Salazar, PhD Description: Tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable death and disease in the United States (US). The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (TCA), signed into law on June 22, 2009, gives FDA the authority to regulate tobacco products. Under the TCA, FDA has the authority to require premarket review of new tobacco products, authorize the marketing of modified risk tobacco products, and take regulatory actions including the development of product ...
Tobacco Town: A Computational Model for Exploring Environmental Effects of Retail Tobacco Control Policies Speaker: Douglas Luke, PhD Description: Agent-based models are a form of computational model that simulates actions of autonomous agents as well as their interactions with other agents and with their social or physical environments. Agent-based models have an important history of use in public health for studying infectious diseases, but more recently have been applied to chronic disease and policy research, including tobacco control. In this presentation, we will describe Tobacco Town, a series ...
The Use of Macrosimulation Models in Tobacco Research Speaker: David Mendez, PhD Description: This talk will present a simulation modeling framework frequently used in simulation analyses in tobacco control. We will discuss the basic architecture of compartmental or aggregate models and their implementation as macrosimulation models. We will examine these models within the context of tobacco research and tobacco regulatory science. We will also present several modeling examples drawn from the tobacco research field.
Simulation Modeling and How it Informs the Work of FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) Speaker: Mitch Zeller, JD Description: FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products Director Mitch Zeller, J.D., will discuss how simulation modeling is used as a tool to inform the Center’s work and decision-making process. Real-world examples will be outlined showing how simulation modeling helps the Center assess the potential impacts of new tobacco products and new regulatory actions on measures of tobacco product use, morbidity, and mortality.
The Role of Simulation Modeling in Tobacco Research and Regulation: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Speaker: Kenneth E. Warner, PhD Description: Introducing the symposium, this presentation will open with a brief description of the nature of simulation modeling and then consider its role in tobacco research and regulation. While a wide variety of modeling approaches can be used to evaluate the effects of variables, including policies, on outcomes of interest (such as smoking prevalence), simulation models offer the most flexibility to incorporate as much complexity as necessary (and possible) to describe ...
CAsToR Trainee and New Investigator: Thuy Le, PhD Description: CAsToR Trainee and New Investigator Thuy Le, PhD discusses the role of mathematical modeling in tobacco regulatory research.
Estimating the Public Health Consequences of Menthol Cigarettes on Smoking Prevalence and Premature Mortality Speakers: David Mendez, PhD • Thuy Le, PhD Description: “Estimating the Public Health Consequences of Menthol Cigarettes on Smoking Prevalence and Premature Mortality: An Update of the Simulation Analysis Supporting the Recommendations of the 2011 FDA’s TPSAC Menthol Report” “Our results indicate that mentholated tobacco products have had a significant impact on public health and could continue to pose a substantial health risk.” — David Mendez, associate professor in the Department of ...
CAsToR Trainee and Early Stage Investigator: Luis Zavala-Arciniega, MD, MSc Description: CAsToR Trainee and Early Stage Investigator Luis Zavala-Arciniega, MD, MSc discusses flavors and disparities on tobacco products among exclusive, dual and polytobacco users to evaluate the impact on potential flavoring restrictions on tobacco products.
Git for GitHub: Introduction to collaborative Git development Speaker: Alexander Gaenko, PhD, CSDA (IEEE CS), Scientific Programmer / HPC Specialist Description: In this webinar you will learn: • use the distributed features of Git to publish your project; • interact with your collaborators; • incorporate changes from volunteer contributors; • revert some of Git actions and understand how this may affect the work of other contributors Please note, this is a continuation of our previous course “The code is forever: an introduction to distributed ...
Selecting a Target Journal Description: For CAsToR Researchers: Learn to strategically select a target journal based on your content, the impact factor, alt metrics as well as your career goals and trajectory. NIH National Cancer Institute and FDA Center for Tobacco Products Award Number U54CA229974.
Game Theory of Tobacco Industry Behavior And IQOS Price Elasticity: Research From Early Stage Investigators in Tobacco Regulatory Science Speakers: Dr. Michael Hayashi • Dr. Michal Stoklosa Description: “Game Theoretic Modelling of Tobacco Industry Responses to a Proposed Ban on the Sale of Menthol Flavored Cigarettes” with Dr. Michael Hayashi (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Michigan, Former CAsToR pilot project PI) and “The effect of IQOS introduction on cigarette sales: the role of prices in product substitution” with Dr. Michal Stoklosa (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Illinois - Chicago, Former CAsToR pilot project PI)
The code is forever: an introduction to distributed version control with Git and GitHub Speaker: Alexander Gaenko, PhD, CSDA (IEEE CS), Scientific Programmer / HPC Specialist Description: In this webinar you will learn: • Typical Git workflow • How Git and GitHub help you to work on projects together • How to perform the most common Git operations • Share your work and collaborate on GitHub • How to use Git and share your code with others • How Git keeps track of your files and preserves the history ...
CAsToR Early Stage Investigator: Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, MD, MSc, PhD Description: CAsToR Early Stage Investigator Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, MD, MSc, PhD, discusses applications of simulation modeling and the importance of multidisciplinary teams within tobacco regulatory science.
Applications of Complex Systems Approaches to Address Public Health Challenges Speaker: Joshua Epstein, PhD Description: Dr. Joshua Epstein, a pioneer and leading scientist on the study of complex social dynamics using mathematical and computational models, will give an overview of complex systems and its potential applications to tobacco research and tobacco regulatory science.
CAsToR Trainee: Omobukola ‘Buki’ Usidame Description: CAsToR trainee Omobukola “Buki” Usidame, MPA, PhD, discusses factors that influence tobacco regulatory science policies, and the evaluation of tobacco regulatory science policies to assess related health and social disparities.
Modeling in Tobacco Control in the U.S. – the good, the bad, the ugly Speakers: Dr. David Levy • Dr. David Mendez • Dr. Rafael Meza Description: CAsToR leads Drs. Levy, Mendez, and Meza will provide an overview of modeling applications in tobacco control research, discuss the types of models used in this field and their purpose, as well as future directions for modeling in tobacco regulatory science. A Q&A session will follow. Please contact Katie Zarins (kmrents@umich.edu) with questions.
Create an Effective Research Presentation CAsToR Speaker: Dr. Ella August Description: This video will help you create an effective live or recorded research presentation with slides. The video covers the importance of understanding your audience, standard components of a research presentation, and using strategies to maximize audience comprehension.
Create an Effective Poster Video- PREPSS Speaker: Dr. Ella August Description: This short video provides guidance for creating poster videos. Two sample structures for short poster videos are provided.
