Panel Discussion Speakers: David B. Abrams, PhD • Benjamin Apelberg, PhD, MHS • Clifford Douglas, JD • Dorothy Hatsukami, PhD
Breakout Discussions Speakers: David Levy, PhD • David Mendez, PhD • Rafael Meza, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD • Cliff Douglas, JD
Breakout Reports Speakers: David Levy, PhD • David Mendez, PhD • Rafael Meza, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD • Cliff Douglas, JD
Modeling a Menthol Cigarette Ban and Flavor Restrictions on ENDS Speaker: David Levy, PhD Description: We first present the results of a simulation model that examines the impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars. This model relies on the results of an expert elicitation. The results are particularly sensitive to assumptions regarding the likelihood of smokers switching to ENDS. Extensions of that analysis are currently being conducted to consider the implications of applying flavors restrictions to ENDS. We discuss issues related to that model, and ...
Evaluating Potential Future Harm of Menthol Cigarettes Speaker: David Mendez, PhD Description: This talk will discuss how we used simulation analysis to evaluate the potential harm that menthol cigarettes could cause if they remain in the market.
The CISNET Smoking History Generator and CAsToR microsimulation models. Past Applications, Current Developments, and Future Directions Speaker: Rafael Meza, PhD Description: The Smoking History Generator (SHG) is a microsimulator developed by the CISNET Lung Group that generates detailed individual smoking histories for the US population. The SHG uses as inputs smoking initiation, cessation, intensity probabilities and smoking-adjusted mortality rates by age, cohort and sex. A macro-level version of the SHG has also been developed to reduce computational time when appropriate. The SHG has been used to evaluate the impact of tobacco ...
Trends in Nicotine Product Use among U.S. Adolescents, 1999-2020 Speaker: Ruoyan Sun, PhD Description: With rising e-cigarette use among U.S. adolescents and declining use of other tobacco products, it is unclear how total use of nicotine products, and its long-term health risks, have changed. CDC’s standard measure – any tobacco product use in the past 30 days – considers neither frequency of use nor product risk implications. In this study, we investigate how nicotine product use, including frequency of use, and its associated risks have changed among ...
An Estimation of the Harm of Menthol Cigarettes in the United States from 1980-2018 Speaker: Thuy Le, PhD Description: In this talk, I’ll present how we used a mathematical model with publicly available data to quantify the damage attributed to menthol cigarettes in the United States from 1980 through 2018. The numbers of extra new smokers, smoking-related premature deaths and life years lost (due to menthol cigarette smoking) are considered as the measures of the harmful effects of menthol.
Social Network Structure and Cigarette Smoking Among Adolescents and Young Adults Speaker: Iris Shao, MPH
Panel Discussion Speakers: Jody Sindelar, PhD • Aylin Sertkaya, PhD • Warren Bickel, PhD • Raymond Niaura, PhD
Generating Models Before Generating Parameters: A Bayesian Network Approach Speaker: Raymond Niaura, PhD Description: Computational and statistical models are useful tools for purposes of explanation and prediction. Construction of models is usually based on expert judgement and/or consensus, or is set by default by the analytic approach that is chosen. All models encounter difficulties as the number of variables increases. Here I present a Bayesian network, data-driven approach to model structure learning which relies on several machine learning algorithms to construct and ...
An Experimental Model of the Tobacco Marketplace Speaker: Warren Bickel, PhD Description: The tobacco marketplace is experiencing rapid changes in the type and number of tobacco products and new policies. Adding to that complexity is the illegal tobacco marketplace, which will continue to develop in response to some policies. Here we report on the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) paradigm that we have developed and tested in various studies. The ETM is a methodology developed to forecast the consequences of regulatory policies on consumer ...
Expert Elicitation – Insights and Lessons Learned Speaker: Aylin Sertkaya, PhD Description: Decision makers and analysts must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate in one way or another. Expert judgment then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data as well as in the completion of information gaps. But how experts are selected, and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely. This talk will cover ...
Generating Model Parameters Analyzing Real-World Data Versus Conducting Discrete Choice Experiments: Impact of Vaping and Smoking Policies Speaker: Jody Sindelar, PhD Description: This presentation will compare two methods of generating tobacco model parameters: 1) using quasi experimental methods with real world data versus 2) conducting discrete choice experiments (DCEs). Examples will be taken from a series of my coauthored studies estimating policy impacts using DCEs alongside a survey using a national sample online. Examples of quasi experimental studies will be drawn from a coauthored study and from a large, ongoing UMich/Yale ...
Panel Discussion Speakers: David Mendez, PhD • Douglas Luke, PhD • Esther Salazar, PhD • Jamie Tam, PhD Description: Moderated by Rafael Meza, PhD
Population Modeling in Tobacco Regulation to Quantify the Risks and Benefits to the Population as a Whole Speaker: Esther Salazar, PhD Description: Tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable death and disease in the United States (US). The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (TCA), signed into law on June 22, 2009, gives FDA the authority to regulate tobacco products. Under the TCA, FDA has the authority to require premarket review of new tobacco products, authorize the marketing of modified risk tobacco products, and take regulatory actions including the development of product ...
Tobacco Town: A Computational Model for Exploring Environmental Effects of Retail Tobacco Control Policies Speaker: Douglas Luke, PhD Description: Agent-based models are a form of computational model that simulates actions of autonomous agents as well as their interactions with other agents and with their social or physical environments. Agent-based models have an important history of use in public health for studying infectious diseases, but more recently have been applied to chronic disease and policy research, including tobacco control. In this presentation, we will describe Tobacco Town, a series ...
The Use of Macrosimulation Models in Tobacco Research Speaker: David Mendez, PhD Description: This talk will present a simulation modeling framework frequently used in simulation analyses in tobacco control. We will discuss the basic architecture of compartmental or aggregate models and their implementation as macrosimulation models. We will examine these models within the context of tobacco research and tobacco regulatory science. We will also present several modeling examples drawn from the tobacco research field.
Simulation Modeling and How it Informs the Work of FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) Speaker: Mitch Zeller, JD Description: FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products Director Mitch Zeller, J.D., will discuss how simulation modeling is used as a tool to inform the Center’s work and decision-making process. Real-world examples will be outlined showing how simulation modeling helps the Center assess the potential impacts of new tobacco products and new regulatory actions on measures of tobacco product use, morbidity, and mortality.
The Role of Simulation Modeling in Tobacco Research and Regulation: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Speaker: Kenneth E. Warner, PhD Description: Introducing the symposium, this presentation will open with a brief description of the nature of simulation modeling and then consider its role in tobacco research and regulation. While a wide variety of modeling approaches can be used to evaluate the effects of variables, including policies, on outcomes of interest (such as smoking prevalence), simulation models offer the most flexibility to incorporate as much complexity as necessary (and possible) to describe ...
