“An Expert Elicitation on the Effects of a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes and Cigars in the United States”

ABSTRACT: The US FDA announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the US. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18-24 menthol, age 35-54 menthol, and age 35-54 non-menthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12-24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use.

AUTHORS: David T Levy, Christopher J Cadham, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, Marie Knoll, Nargiz Travis, Zhe Yuan, Yameng Li, Ritesh Mistry, Clifford E Douglas, Jamie Tam, Aylin Sertkaya, Kenneth E Warner, Rafael Meza   JOURNAL: Nicotine and tobacco research

POSTED: Tue Jun 08, 2021

“US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths”

ABSTRACT: The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

AUTHORS: David T. Levy, Luz María Sánchez-Romero, Nargiz Travis, Zhe Yuan, Yameng Li, Sarah Skolnick, Jihyoun Jeon, Jamie Tam and Rafael Meza   JOURNAL: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

POSTED: Mon May 03, 2021

“Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model”

BACKGROUND: Smoking prevalence has markedly declined in the USA over the past 50 years. During that time, cigarette taxes were substantially increased, and smoke-free air policies, media campaigns, youth access policies and smoking cessation treatments were implemented. These policies have been shown to be effective, and can explain much of the reduction in smoking prevalence. Despite this progress, the harms from cigarette smoking remain unacceptably high. More than 480,000 Americans die each year due to smoking, and two-thirds of long-term smokers die prematurely of a smoking-attributable disease. To drastically reduce the harms of smoking on population health, innovative approaches are needed.

Download the Smoking and Vaping Model and Manual.

AUTHORS: David T. Levy, Jamie Tam, Luz María Sanchez-Romero, Yameng Li, Zhe Yuan, Jihyoun Jeon, Rafael Meza   JOURNAL: Population Health Metrics

POSTED: Tue Apr 19, 2021